An inadvertent reading goal
As I’ve talked about a lot on here, my primary reading goal for the year has been to meet the Mind Voyages Reading Challenge. Doing great so far. Only five books remaining, and I’m listening to one of them now.
The extra constraints I’ve placed on this challenge have morphed into another reading goal for 2010: Only read authors I’ve never read before. I’m doing quite well at this, but there’s still five and half months to go. It might get tempting to slip. Authors I’ve read so far in 2010, in chronological order, are:
Kim Stanley Robinson
Neil Gaiman
Robert J. Sawyer
Jason Fried & David Heinemeier Hansson
Louis Bayard
Lois McMaster Bujold
Margaret Atwood
Connie Willis
Harlan Coben
Vernor Vinge
R. A. MacAvoy
Seth Godin
David Weber
Diane Duane
Sara Gruen
Cherie Priest
John Scalzi
On deck include: Paolo Bacigalupi, Joe Haldeman, Brian Aldiss, and Elizabeth Moon. And there will surely be more. Yes, I know I risk street cred by admitting I’ve never read any of these authors before, but it’s a chance I take.
(The observant among you will notice China Mieville’s not listed. That’s because I listened to The City & The City and didn’t actually read it. Splitting hairs, perhaps, but it’s my blog – my rules.)
Next year, I’m going to use what I’ve discovered this year as a platform for expansion. That, and I’m going to sign up to review all the Hugo nominees and vote on the Hugo Awards. But that’s for a later time.
Catching up on my book reviews
I haven’t posted a book review in a while, but that doesn’t mean I’ve stopped reading. In fact, except for a particularly busy stretch in mid-May, I’ve been reading more than ever. The last book I reviewed was Hominids by Robert J. Sawyer. I’ll fill you guys in on what I’ve read since with some capsule reviews.
Business books
Rework by David Heinemeier Hansson and Jason Fried
This is in many ways an elaboration of ideas first published on the 37Signals company blog. It defines the maxims they use as a company. And they’re not what you’re used to. The book is primarily a manifesto for startups. There’s sections in here that can be used just about anywhere, but it’s a rare person that could apply the entire book. Still, very much worth a read – there will be at least one page in here that will either save you enough time, money, or angst to make the book a worthy investment. 4 out of 5 stars.
Linchpin by Seth Godin
While this book has a more powerful message than Rework, it’s also much more disjoint. It could have used the final editing pass that Rework got. That said, this is a book you must read to protect yourself from the ongoing commoditization of labor. This is an explanation of how replaceable you probably are, and how to make yourself indispensable at work. The most disturbing part is the revelation that we’re trained from a young age to be a cog. Follow the rules, fit in, etc. What’s most needed these days is leadership, and the qualities that make good leaders are the exact opposite of what’s typically taught. A very thought provoking book. 3.5 out of 5 stars.
Reading Game books
On The Kindle Boards, there’s a monthly reading game. Each month you’re randomly matched up with someone who assigns you a book they loved and isn’t in your normal genres, nor something you refuse to read. Some very good recommendations have come from that game. I’ve played three months now (skipping June) and here’s what I’ve read so far:
The Pale Blue Eye by Louis Bayard
This is a murder mystery set at West Point in 1830. It’s features a fictional account of Edgar Allen Poe during his time at the Academy. (And yes, Poe did actually attend West Point briefly.) There’s a twist at the end that actually made me question the whole book. It was a good read, but the ending is really going to make you think. I feel Bayard did a great job portraying a young-ish Poe. 3.5 out of 5 stars.
The Handmaid’s Tale by Margaret Atwood
This was also on my Reading Challenge list, so it was a fortunate assignment. This is a brilliantly written, very bleak book. In some ways the portrayed world reminded me of a religiously-based North Korea. There are some amazing insights into human character contained in here, but I just can’t see a society like this developing. At least not on the scale imagined here. That said, it’s a must read for any dystopia fan. (Of course, most dystopia fans have probably already read it. Twice.) 4.5 out of five stars.
Caught by Harlan Coben
Caught is a crime drama. It’s not really a detective novel, as the primary character isn’t a detective but you’d be excused for thinking so. The first third of this book is poorly written, the second half is very good and keeps you moving. I had some real issues with the characters in the book – I felt quite a few reactions were purely for the author’s convenience and didn’t seem plausible. Coben also presents the quandary of making you like a trash-tabloid-exposé reporter as a main character. The first third of the book would get one star, but if you like this kind of thing keep going. It partly redeems itself and reads quickly. 2.5 out of five stars.
Reading Challenge books
Falling Free by Lois McMaster Bujold
This is the precursor to the Vorkosigan saga. It’s set about 200 years before the rest of the series, and lays the groundwork for that world. As such, it’s sort of a standalone book and is an entertaining adventure. Villains are evil, good guys are lucky and clever, and a whole pack of genetically engineered kids (The Quaddies) are caught in the middle. 3.5 out of 5 stars.
To Say Nothing of the Dog by Connie Willis
A frenetic, funny romp. Certainly has its poignant moments, then nearly borders on slapstick. All mostly set in the stodginess of Victorian England. I say “mostly” as this is a time-travel book, and the primary two characters are from the future. There’s some very clever ideas here on time travel that I hadn’t seen before. (But I’m not nearly as well-read as many of you.) Recommended. 4 out of 5 stars.
A Fire Upon the Deep by Vernor Vinge
I hate clichés like “tour de force” it’s a sure sign the reviewer was being lazy. But, if I was going to use some hackneyed phrase to describe A Fire Upon the Deep, that would be the one. It’s a deep, imaginative, engaging book. The galactic Zones of Thought concept is simply brilliant, and Vinge challenges standard alien races. The two most prominent in the book are a sentient dog-like race that possess a pack mind, merging 3-8 individuals into a single entity. The other is a tree-like race lacking short-term memory that’s been integrated into a cart of sorts that provides them memory, mobility and more. And it works. Read this if you haven’t already. 4.5 out of five stars.
Tea with the Black Dragon by R. A. MacAvoy
A charming little modern fantasy/adventure. It’s set in early 80s Silicon Valley, and some of the references were like a trip down memory lane. A fun, quick read. Good for a change of pace after something long and deep. 3.5 out of five stars.
Audio Books
I’ve also listened to four audio books in the mean time: All three books in Asimov’s Foundation Trilogy, and The City & The City by China Miéville. I realized about 1/4 through Foundation and Empire that I’d never read the last two books in the trilogy. Well, now I have. Absolute classic SF and a must read, of course.
Miéville’s book is fascinating. It’s a simple hard-boiled detective novel, but the setting (a fictional Eastern European pair of cities that exist in the same place yet it’s illegal to go from one to the other without proper paperwork) is absolutely fascinating. I have not read any of his work before, and this book is getting slight criticism for merely building on what he’s already done. That said, if that’s all they have to say against it, I’m reading all of his other work. Read it.
State of the Reading Challenge
I’m taking a short break from the challenge, and reading the first Honor Harrington book On Basilisk Station. I’m just over halfway through the challenge – I’m planning 16 books, and I’ve read nine so far. Right on pace. I still need to read two more Hugo winners (though The City & The City just might win the Hugo this year, reducing my book count by one), three more nominees from the 2000s, one more from the 90s, and one more from the 80s.
Books I’ll probably be reading the rest of the way are: The Forever War, A Canticle for Leibowitz (or The Man in the High Castle – can’t decide), Saturn’s Children, Brasyl, Old Man’s War, Remnant Population, and then something from the 80s. Probably either Little, Big, or the The Shadow of the Torturer.
Here’s a nice infographic (and it’s SFW!) from OnlineMBA that reminds you.

Via: Online MBA
So, in this day and age of statistical analysis in baseball, it’s refreshing to see a major league team being proud to say they have no “stat-heads” in their front office. This team just managed to make a splash with what’s being called the the worst contract in baseball.
The Phillies signed Ryan Howard to a five-year, $125 million contract extension. The extension doesn’t kick in until 2012, and will pay him $20, $20, $25, $25, $25, and an option for $23 million (or a $10 million buyout) in years 2012 through 2017.
Ryan Howard will turn 30 this year. This option year is when he’s 37.
When you offer a contract like this to someone, you’re looking at what you might get for your money. It’s really hard to tell with individual players, but you can try to look back at players who put up similar numbers at similar ages to try to guess what may happen. If the pattern looks good, then maybe it’s a good risk. If the pattern is bad, it’s probably not a good offer to make.
And, to make this easier, I’m not going to get into advanced statistics like WAR or similar. Nothing more advanced than OPS and the similarity scores used to determine similar players.
So, who ARE those similar players through their age 29 season? Here’s the top five (All stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com):
- Richie Sexson
- Cecil Fielder
- Mo Vaughn
- Willie McCovey
- David Ortiz
Hey, there’s a hall-of-famer in there (McCovey). And all those guys mashed the ball. That’s not so bad, eh? Well, let’s look a closer look at what happens over the next five years to those guys.
I took the average of each player’s stats weighted by plate appearances to come up with a composite picture.
In their age 29 seasons, the composite numbers (scaled to the Ryan Howard’s 703 plate appearances he had in his age 29 season, as Sexson only had 100-and-changed plate appearances that season) are:
(Avg/OBP/Slg/OPS – HR/RBI):
.288/.383/.543/926 – 40/126
Howard’s numbers were:
.279/.360/.571/931 – 45/141
So, everything’s relatively close together. Howard had lower avg/obp, and more HRs/RBIs, but Philadelphia’s park is very conducive to home runs, and the Phillies have on-base machines batting in front of Howard. So I’m comfortable with the comparisons. Particularly that OPS number.
So, what happens over the next five years? Here’s the composite comparison:
| Age | Avg | OBP | SLG | OPS | PA/HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | .290 | .377 | .568 | 945 | 15.8 |
| 31 | .289 | .389 | .554 | 943 | 17.5 |
| 32 | .259 | .368 | .504 | 872 | 19.1 |
| 33 | .249 | .345 | .439 | 784 | 25.1 |
| 34 | .239 | .333 | .424 | 757 | 23.5 |
After age 31, there’s some pretty sharp declining going on. By age 34, home runs are 50% less frequent than at 30, and the OPS is descending to league average. (For reference, the 2009 NL league average OPS was 739.) Within this data are monster seasons from McCovey at ages 30-32 and Ortiz at age 30.
So, let’s apply that pattern to Ryan Howard’s numbers. Same percentage increases and decreases, and I’ll add a new column. Howard’s salary given his new contract extension.
| Age | Avg | OBP | SLG | OPS | PA/HR | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | .281 | .354 | .597 | 951 | 14.1 | $19m |
| 31 | .280 | .366 | .583 | 949 | 15.7 | $20m |
| 32 | .251 | .346 | .530 | 876 | 17.1 | $20m* |
| 33 | .241 | .324 | .461 | 785 | 22.4 | $20m |
| 34 | .232 | .313 | .446 | 759 | 21.0 | $25m |
That asterisk marks the season where the new contract extension begins.
So, why’d I stop at age 34? I can’t effectively go any further. Why?
- David Ortiz is currently in his age 34 season, so there’s less than one month of data. (And it’s not good data, either.)
- Richie Sexson was out of baseball at 34.
- Cecil Fielder was out of baseball at 35.
- Mo Vaughn missed his age 33 season and was out of baseball at 35.
The only remaining player in the study playing at age 35 or later is Willie McCovey. And while he’s a hall-of-famer, he:
- never made an all-star team after age 33
- never hit more than 29 HRs in a season after age 32
- only received MVP votes in one season after age 33
- only played more than 130 games in a season once after age 33
He was sporadically good after age 34, and a force in the lineup, but nothing more. Certainly not 2nd-highest-paid-player good.
So, according to the five most comparable players we’ve seen before, there’s a 20% chance Howard will even be playing at age 35. And the Phillies will still be on the hook for at least $60 million at that point.
Frankly, I think they were going to get the best they could out of Howard by letting his contract run out and letting him walk.
By the way, if you’re curious about who the NEXT five comparisons are, here’s your list: Tony Clark, Mark McGwire, Carlos Delgado, Fred McGriff, Norm Cash.
- Clark played two seasons of bad baseball after age 34.
- McGwire had two steriod-enhanced seasons after age 34 and dropped off a cliff after 36.
- McGriff, Delgado, and Cash are probably your realistic best-case scenarios. And, conversely, the three weakest comparisons. They were productive through ages 38, 36, and 38 respectively.
Will Carroll tweeted “They just paid A-Rod money to Fred McGriff.” Given that McGriff is in those best-case scenarios, that sentiment is right on the money.
Oh, and we didn’t even talk about Howard’s defense. Which by all measurements is, at best, average. If he was a wunderkind with the glove, there would be some benefit there. But the NL doesn’t have the designated hitter, and defensive skills don’t improve with age.
This contract will have far-reaching effects both inside and outside Philadelphia. The Phillies are going to have real trouble keeping other good players as they won’t have budget room. And better players are going to be cashing in. I can’t even imagine what Albert Pujols’ next contract is going to look like.
Good luck, Philadelphia. It might be okay for the next couple seasons, but as soon as that extension kicks in, you’re going to regret it.
Parallel Universes Interacting
The next adventure in my ongoing Kindle odyssey was Hominids by Robert J. Sawyer. This is book one in the Neanderthal Parallax trilogy. It won the Hugo in 2003, and was nominated for the Campbell award the same year.
The book, and the series as a whole, deals with the idea of a parallel universe in which Neanderthals won out over Homo Sapiens and became the dominant humanoid on Earth. Much of this first book deals with exploration into what that society may have been like. I’m not going go into details of the book here, just a couple overall impressions.
For a book that dabbles in at least seven scientific disciplines (particle physics, quantum computing, cosmology, evolution, genetics, anthropology, and sociology) and one non-scientific one (theology), it reads remarkably quickly. I think I finished the entire book in three days. The flow keeps alternating between the Human and Neanderthal worlds in a consistent time line, so it’s relatively easy to keep going. Also, there’s not a huge number of characters to deal with in either world, so there’s little effort spent in keeping track of who’s who.
I’ve got a couple beefs with the story, though.
First, there’s a rape scene. It’s not really that graphic, but I question why it’s included within the narrative of the story. Now, I’m not a prude by any means whatsoever. But looking at the effect the scene had on the story I don’t see why it needed to be within the book. It easily could have been something the character in question was dealing with as the book started. As it stands, it’s an anomaly within the book making it stand out that much more.
Second, there’s a couple devices the author uses that serve his purposes a little too easily. The mix of people involved in the quarantine, and their “pairing off,” was just a little too convenient in advancing the story.
Finally, some sections of the book came off a little preachy when discussing the differing natures of Human society vs. Neanderthal.
That said, there’s a lot to think about within the covers. I haven’t done any research into quantum computing to know if Sawyer’s explanation is accurate, but I tend to give authors the benefit of the doubt in those aspects. It at least sounds plausible. And some of the features of the Neanderthal society will certainly make you think.
Overall, I’ll give this one 3.5 out of 5. It’s cleanly written, and easy to read. At times the short “chapters” felt almost like potato chips – I just kept reading one more. It doesn’t strike me as a “Hugo-worthy” winner, but I haven’t read any of the other nominees from that year to effectively make that judgement. I do note that only one of the nominees appeared on the Nebula list as well (Bones of the Earth from Michael Swanwick.) So, maybe it was a weaker year. That happens. I’ll certainly read the remainder of the series at some point.
